U.S. Automotive Market Poised to Shift This quarter will mark a new first in U.S. automaker market share: Hyundai Motor Group will overtake Ford Motor Company. Cox Automotive’s U.S. automaker market share forecast for Q3 2026 (Sept. 24, 2026) is at 511,421 new vehicle sales for Hyundai Motor Group (Hyundai Motor, Kia and Genesis) versus 504,172 Ford and Lincoln. Finalized automaker sales results will be released early next month, but if those numbers match Cox Automotive’s forecast, Hyundai Motor Group will seat in third place behind General Motors and Toyota in the third quarter.

Hyundai’s momentum has been propelled by the surge in the hybrid vehicle market, with hybrids now expected to make up 16.3 percent of all new-vehicle sales in the third quarter of 2026. In addition to experiencing strong gains in hybrid sales, Hyundai/Kia are well behind the pace, while Toyota continues to be the dominant hybrid seller. At the same time, full-vehicle-market share for pure EVs is now expected to lag behind previous estimates, though used-vehicle EV sales are also seeing growth. Ford is still the pace-setter for year-to-date market share, but the decline in available inventories and its hybrid offerings is starting to catch up, while Cox Automotive has increased its full-year 2026 new-vehicle sales outlook for the U.S. market to 16.1 million.

1. Hyundai Motor Group Is Set to Surpass Ford in U.S. Sales

Hyundai Motor Group to Beat Ford Motor in Quarterly U.S. Sales The tide of change is nearly upon the American automotive industry as it is heading toward a moment when Hyundai Motor Group sales will beat Ford Motor first time in quarterly U.S. vehicle sales, according to Cox Automotive forecasting. Cox Automotive expects Hyundai Motor Group, including Hyundai Motor, Kia and Genesis, to sell 511,421 new vehicles from July through September, while Ford, including the Lincoln brand, is forecast to deliver 504,172 vehicles. Hyundai’s forecast which is up 6.5 percent from a year ago is nearly offset by Ford’s 7.1 percent decrease across its retail channels in the U.S., according to the forecast, which will be revealed when manufacturers report their official sales volumes in October.

The Numbers Behind The Shift:

• Hyundai projects 511,421 sales
• Ford projects 504,172 deliveries
• Hyundai sales rise 6.5%
• Ford sales fall 7.1%
• First quarterly Ford surpass

The overall change would push Hyundai Motor Group to second place behind General Motors and Toyota Motor Sales USA in the quarter. GM is projected to hit 671,706 units, while Toyota is expected to reach 642,707 units. GM is set to be down 5.2 percent for the quarter year-over-year, while Toyota is projected to grow 2.2 percent for the third quarter. The estimates show how quickly the third quarter position can change by simply focusing on a different set of market leaders and different sales trends. Hyundai’s increase for the quarter is particularly indicative of how much a difference splitting the group into three brands that compete in different parts of the market makes. Ford maintains a period-to-date advantage which means the group’s third quarter result does not necessarily mean it will have the highest total for the full year.

2. Ford Still Holds a Year to Date Sales Advantage

Though Hyundai Motor Group is expected to jump ahead of Ford in the third quarter, Ford still has a larger year-to-date U.S. market share. The company commands 12.5 percent of the market (down 1.0 percentage point compared to the previous year’s period), while Hyundai Motor Group has 11.9 percent, up 0.7 percentage point, which means Ford has comfortably remained in the third place position for the entire year. The discrepancy between the quarter-to-quarter and year-to-date figures demonstrates how you can see a lot of movement in a shorter period that is not yet reflected in the entire year’s data. Hyundai’s recently-stronger momentum will nonetheless close the gap between the two automotive groups.

A Narrowing Market Gap:

• Ford holds 12.5% share
• Hyundai holds 11.9% share
• Ford lost 1.0 point
• Hyundai gained 0.7 point
• Quarterly gap is narrowing

Overall, the U.S. market has seen shifting standings among major manufacturers. GM is at 16.7% market share, year-to-date, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous year, but automakers like Toyota and others have improved on that, with 15.6% market share, year-to-date, gaining 0.5 percentage points, specifically, and choking GM’s lead. While other automakers like Ford have seen a decrease compared to the previous year, or even shrinking market share on the brand level, others like Hyundai Motor Group have gone in the opposite direction. Overall, this means that the competitiveness across the entire market involves a different combination of factors such as sales, market-share movements and vehicle demand.

3. Hybrid Vehicles Are Driving Hyundai’s Momentum

A significant driver for Hyundai Motor Group’s increased sales is the rapid growth of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) in the US. With rising costs for gasoline and diesel, along with inflation hitting budgets, Americans are looking for ways to spend less on fuel. The increased price of a gallon of gasoline has been driven by a high cost for diesel fuel, with the Consumer Price Index rising to 3.4 percent in August 2026, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hybrid powertrains provide consumers with fuel savings while still having an affordable vehicle that doesn’t have to be recharged. This represents the highest proportion of hybrids to total new vehicle sales, with Cox Automotive data indicating that hybrids accounted for 16.3 percent of new vehicle sales in the third quarter of 2026, compared to 13 percent for the same period in 2025.

Why Hybrids Are Gaining Ground:

• Hybrid share reached 16.3%
• Previous share was 13%
• Fuel efficiency attracts buyers
• Charging constraints remain avoided
• Asian brands lead growth

For Asian automakers, led by Toyota, Hyundai and Kia, this growth area is already key. Cox Automotive analysts have pointed to the significance of availability of hybrids in the current rankings of best-selling cars, noting that Ford and GM do not have hybrid line-ups as extensive as Hyundai and Toyota. Automakers lacking in hybrids could lose share if demand shifts, and this is working to affect more than just individual vehicles. Hyundai has the ability to ride this shift in consumer preference while increasing the size of its hybrid line-up, as more consumers are starting to factor in things such as fuel economy and practicality when shopping for new vehicles.

4. Kia and Hyundai Are Recording Major Hybrid Sales Growth

Hyundai Motor Group’s hybrid strength is clear when you look at how its individual brands are doing. Kia had the largest percentage increase in hybrid sales among the makers that made up the information we provided with in the second quarter of 2026. Kia’s hybrid sales jumped 130 percent, a gain of 36,000 units and a new 9 percent share of the hybrid market. Hyundai’s hybrid sales were up 75 percent in the second quarter, an additional 30,000 units, and hold 10 percent of the segment. These two figures illustrate how quickly hybrid sales are growing within the brands that make up a significant part of Hyundai Motor Group.

Hybrid Growth Across Key Brands:

• Kia hybrid sales rose 130%
• Hyundai hybrid sales rose 75%
• Kia added 36,000 units
• Hyundai added 30,000 units
• Both brands expanded market share

Toyota still led the hybrid market with second quarter hybrid sales up 12 percent or 32,000 vehicles for a 44 percent market share. Other Asian automakers also registered large year over year increases. Honda was up 13 percent or 13,000 vehicles for a 17 percent market share, while Subaru was up 140 percent or 16,000 vehicles for a 4 percent market share. Clearly, the hybrid market is expanding for other Asian automakers as well and Hyundai and Kia also experienced year over year increases.

5. Ford’s Product Strategy Has Affected Its Sales Position

Ford’s downward move in sales position is also related to several strategic and operational choices outlined in the data provided. The removal of fleet sales especially in the daily rental sector and the deletion of the other key marginal model the Escape compact SUV as rival Hyundai/Kia haven’t lose much volume going to its platform partner Bronco sport where other decisions Ford has made that had a significant impact on volume. Ford’s decision to move its production away from the Escape also has an impact on its current mix, with these models being planned for cessation after 2026. Ford’s combination of options in hybrids is also relatively small with its own Maverick (small truck) F-150 (truck) a significant proportion of its total offering.

Ford’s Changing Product Approach:

• Fleet sales have been reduced
• Escape ends after 2026
• Hybrid range remains limited
• Maverick offers hybrid power
• F-150 also offers hybrid

The Ford Escape itself has a long history within the company’s product range. It is a compact crossover SUV that has been produced across four generations for the North American market from the 2001 through 2026 model years. Its hybrid variant was introduced for the 2005 model year and represented Ford’s first hybrid-electric vehicle. The fourth-generation Escape offered gasoline, hybrid and plug-in hybrid options. Ford’s decision to discontinue the model after 2026 therefore represents another change within its vehicle portfolio. Meanwhile, the company’s current hybrid strategy remains focused on selected models, while Hyundai and Kia are benefiting from broader hybrid demand across their respective product ranges.

6. Supply Chain Problems Have Added Pressure on Ford

Aside from the mentioned weak development in the revenues of Ford’s vehicle operations, the division has also experienced some supply-related issues which weighed on the sales volume in the third quarter. Last year, a fire at a third-party parts supplier contributed to supply chain disruptions impacting Ford’s extremely profitable and popular F-series pickup trucks. Ford has therefore not been able to ensure strong dealer inventories in the US for those pivotal models and, in a direct relation to that, the F-series makes up a key part of Ford’s overall vehicle business. While Hyundai Motor Group still has a higher sales volume overall, Ford’s supply problems are another factor which explains the divergence between the two companies’ third-quarter outlooks.

Production Challenges Behind Ford:

• Supplier fire disrupted production
• F-Series production faced delays
• Dealer inventory levels suffered
• Key pickups were affected
• Quarterly sales faced pressure

However, Ford has pointed to other elements that impact its own manufacturing economics and competitive standing. Ford said tariffs, foreign exchange, labour costs and supply chain issues can create a scenario where manufacturing vehicles in South Korea is better than manufacturing them in the US. Yet Ford said the company remains ahead of Hyundai in the cumulative sales data through August. Ford’s emphasis on the year-to-date comparison is relevant because the forecast of the third quarter only accounts for one period, and even with what Ford said were limits on production, the decisioning on product and shifting customer tastes, it still remains ahead of Hyundai.

7. Pure EV Sales Are Moving in the Opposite Direction

Hybrid sales, still surging in the U.S. new-car market, gained a little more ground last year, while battery-only EVs are shrinking. Cox Automotive predicts U.S. new EV sales will drop from 7.4 percent in the third quarter of 2025 to 5.8 percent in the third quarter of 2026. The number of new EV sales is expected to be 239,000 vs. 437,487 sold in the quarter a year earlier. The shift reflects recent “buyer rushes” to lock in new EV deals before key government incentives end and partially explains the widening market share for hybrids while pure battery EVs shrink in overall terms.

EV Market Share Is Declining:

• EV share falls to 5.8%
• Previous share reached 7.4%
• Q3 sales projected at 239,000
• Previous sales reached 437,487
• Tax credits influenced earlier demand

Tesla is expected to have the biggest volume decline of any producer of electric vehicles in the third quarter. The company is expected to sell 31% fewer cars than a year earlier, bringing its quarterly U.S. sales to 123,880, giving it a smaller overall share of the U.S. market, 3%, down 0.6 percentage points from a year ago. Market share for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will also decline, to 1.1% from 2%. Conventional internal combustion engine cars accounted for the lion’s share of sales, 76.8%, compared with 77.6% a year earlier.

8. Used EV Sales Are Showing Different Momentum

What the Electric Vehicle Market Downturn Means Yet, not all electric vehicle market segments are shrinking. Sales of used EVs are rapidly rising, with Cox Automotive expect to see 126,589 used EV sales during Q3, 2026, compared with 111,702 during the same quarter the previous year. Industry analysts have pointed to the rising sales of off-lease electric vehicles, many of which sold during the record sales year at the beginning of the pandemic, as one factor in the rising sales. It reflects a situation where some segments of the electric vehicle market are falling and others are heading into a boom.

Used EVs Tell Another Story:

• Used EV sales are increasing
• Q3 projection reaches 126,589
• Previous figure was 111,702
• Off-lease supply is growing
• Pandemic-era vehicles are returning

Adding to the complex set of trends in the larger U.S. auto market, there’s a range of different movements taking place across new and used EV markets. For instance, while sales of new EVs are being constrained by evolving purchase conditions following the expiration of key government incentives, used EV inventories are being supported by lease returns, and while market shares of hybrids are increasing among consumers interested in fuel efficiency without charging, new EVs and used EVs are not. Each type of vehicle is operating differently with respect to market shares and sales volumes in the context of the larger auto market.

9. The Overall U.S. Auto Market Remains Resilient

Now, despite changing demands of powertrains, changing manufacturer rankings, and changing strains of the economy, the U.S. car market remains relatively strong. Cox Automotive upgraded their forecast for new vehicle sales for 2026 by 2 percent in the third quarter, from 15.8 million to 16.1 million units. Even with relatively modest year-on-year shifts in the volume of new and used-vehicle transactions, Cox Automotive chief economist Jeremy Robb characterized the car market as “competitive resilient” and conditions for consumer finances are also starting to materialize in U.S. consumer sentiment: In a lower-interest rate environment, the growth of financial assets has bolstered the US economy, and lending institutions in the US have experienced the highest car-buying credit availability since 2013.

Key Signs Of Market Strength:

• Full-year forecast reaches 16.1 million
• Previous forecast was 15.8 million
• Credit availability reaches ten-year high
• Consumer finances are improving
• Market remains relatively resilient

Subprime auto loan delinquency rates, which had been a source of concern for the economy, are on the mend after four months of improvement. According to Cox Automotive’s Jonathan Gregory, “Deal structures are shifting in favor of the consumer, and 72-month auto loans are becoming standard.” Transaction prices also have hit historic highs: Kelley Blue Book data from Cox Automotive shows the average transaction price has cracked the $50,000 barrier for the first time, reaching $50,090 in August, while dealer incentive spending has remained in the 6-7 percent range. Consumers are also leaning towards midsize trucks, SUVs, passenger cars, minivans and subcompact SUVs.

10. Hyundai and Ford Reflect a Changing Automotive Landscape

The expected third-quarter sales numbers highlight a historic shift developing in the US automotive market with Hyundai Motor Group and Ford. Hyundai’s 511,421 sales estimated relative to 504,172 for Ford would mark the first quarterly instance for the South Korean firm to outpace Ford. Hyundai Motor Group’s growth is being driven by increased hybrid sales while Ford struggles with supply constraints, a more limited hybrid portfolio and strategic realignments that include fleet sales and changes to vehicle lines. Hyundai Motor President and CEO Jos Muoz has said surpassing Ford isn’t a specific goal but rather customers experience Hyundai Motor as providing high-quality, safe vehicles.

What The Market Shift Shows:

• Hyundai projected above Ford
• Hybrid demand is accelerating
• Ford faces supply challenges
• EV sales are contracting
• Market preferences continue changing

The wider market confirms the context of these changes. Results from Toyota and Hyundai explain hybrid sales while the pure EV market share will continue to fall and used EV sales continue to grow. Ford has a year-to-date lead which makes the quarterly an isolated report on a quickly evolving market rather than a full year’s reversal. Official top-line registrations are not expected until early October, but Ford’s forecasted results paint a picture of how consumer demand, product strategy, supply chains and market conditions are evolving in the US auto world. The changing role between Hyundai Motor Group and Ford clearly has to do with how fuel economy, vehicle supply, market conditions and product choice all will grow in importance in auto sales.