Asian Brands Forecast to Capture Over Half of US New Vehicle Market Share

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In the American new-vehicle market, a major trend is taking shape as the preferences of American consumers head toward fuel-efficient vehicles, hybrids, smaller models, and crossovers. In the Cox Automotive forecast for the second quarter, Asian vehicle producers are expected to gain more than half of the market share. U.S. brands General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis will have a combined market share loss, according to Cox Automotive. The shifting forces at play are affecting buying trends within American dealerships as the balance of U.S. market share is changing.

But despite the rising cost of high interest rates and inflation, sticker-shock fuel prices, and federal EV incentives, the demand for vehicles has remained strong. Cox Automotive increased its full-year new vehicle sales forecast for 2026 to 16.1 million from 15.8 million in its January forecast, which assumed 13.1 million retail sales, 3 million fleet sales and about 3 million lease vehicles. That shows that consumers and fleets are still driven to buy new vehicles, even as affordability and incentives are factors. The market is therefore moving forward in a complex economy, with some brands benefiting from factors other than low prices.

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1. Asian Automakers Expected to Pass Half of U.S. Market Share

Asian auto brands are expected to make up more than half of new-vehicle sales in the United States for the second straight quarter. According to Cox Automotive’s forecast, that share is likely to continue to rise for automakers from Japan, South Korea and other Asian countries as consumers gravitate toward fuel-efficient vehicles, hybrids, passenger cars and smaller crossovers. This level of market share is a significant shift in the dynamics of the US auto industry and a reflection of how consumers are shaping market share distribution among top brands and manufacturers.

Asian Market Share Highlights:

More than half market share
Second consecutive quarter projected
Hybrid demand supports growth
Efficient vehicles attract buyers
Asian brands gain momentum

While these shifts are stark, that won’t matter as much for much of the market, where auto manufactures from Asia have been competing effectively in vehicle segments. Smaller and subcompact SUVs, passenger cars and hybrids continue to be important segments for the market, making sales-ready products for vehicles from manufacturers with long lines of efficient models. Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough noted that this bigger trend for the market story has been driven for much of this year by Asian automakers, whose share has shot up toward record-high levels. The change, then, is showing up in what consumers are choosing rather than in the market just this quarter.

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2. Cox Automotive Raises Its 2026 Sales Forecast

Cox Automotive has upgraded its full-year 2026 projection for U.S. new-vehicle sales to 16.1 million units from 15.8 million. Cox Automotive’s upgraded projection captures the fact that new-vehicle demand has held up better than initially expected despite a series of recent economic shocks. Cox now expects retail sales to total 13.1 million units in 2026 and fleet sales to reach 3 million. The fact that demand was better than expected is even more positive given the headwinds of higher borrowing costs and affordability constraints.

2026 Sales Forecast Highlights:

Full-year forecast reaches 16.1 million
Retail sales reach 13.1 million
Fleet sales approach 3 million
Demand exceeds earlier expectations
Economic pressure remains significant

The revised forecast reflects stronger confidence in vehicle demand heading into the fourth quarter. Cox Automotive chief economist Jeremy Robb said the market has repeatedly performed better than earlier expectations despite higher fuel prices, elevated interest rates, and softer consumer sentiment. The industry also has to adjust to the withdrawal of federal incentives for electric vehicles, which alters the economics of buying for some consumers. Despite all of those issues, the revised sales outlook indicates that consumers are still participating in the new-vehicle market at a healthy pace. And fleet volume is supporting sales volume as well, even when some retail buyers are paying close attention to monthly payments and vehicle prices.

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3. September Sales Show Continued Market Resilience

September 2026 new-vehicle sales are projected to be 1,347,972, an increase of 6.5 percent compared with 1,268,094 vehicles sold in September of last year. The estimate is 2.7 percent below August (1,387,221). The month is also estimated to close out with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.3 million vehicles, nearly the same as the 16.4-million-unit pace for 2016, illustrating how large monthly variations can exist without necessarily shifting the annual rate.

September Sales Highlights:

1.35 million units projected
Sales rise 6.5% year over year
August volume was higher
Annualized pace reaches 16.3 million
Calendar effects influence comparisons

September has 25 selling days, compared to 26 during September 2022 and 26 in August. Calendar changes can have a bearing on monthly comparisons and obscure the clarity of individual sales numbers. Even so, the magnitude of September’s volume suggests that the US market remains brisk, with Cox Automotive anticipating sales have been running fairly steady in the low-to-mid 16-million-unit annual rate since March, even amid the current economic uncertainty. A mixture of retail and fleet demand and sustained credit availability has kept the market from falling off a cliff, even if the rolling monthly data show some ups and downs due to calendar and inventory issues.

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4. Detroit Automakers Face Record Market Share Decline

The Detroit Three General Motors, Ford Motor Co., and Stellantis are losing share in the U.S. new-vehicle market by more than 36%, a reading that according to a Cox Automotive analysis is the lowest that metric has gone in the firm’s data. The shift continues to show the struggle of American automakers to capture customers who are looking elsewhere and to other types of vehicles. It’s also a major change in the structure of the U.S. market, where the Detroit Three historically have had significant share in many segments.

Detroit Three Market Highlights:

Combined share near 36%
Lowest level on record
Consumer preferences are changing
Asian competition continues expanding
Market structure keeps shifting

The changing market is not simply about national origin. Vehicle type also plays an important role. Consumers are increasingly purchasing hybrids, compact crossovers, subcompact SUVs, and passenger cars, areas where Asian manufacturers have significant product coverage. Detroit automakers continue to have major strengths in pickups, larger SUVs, and other segments, but the overall market mix is changing. Cox Automotive expects these market-share trends to continue influencing the industry through the remainder of 2026. As buyers distribute their spending across a wider range of efficient and compact vehicles, differences in product mix are becoming increasingly important to the competitive positions of individual manufacturers.

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5. General Motors Remains the Largest Quarterly Seller

General Motors is projected to remain the leading automaker by third-quarter sales volume, with approximately 671,706 vehicles expected to be sold. However, that figure represents a 5.2% decline compared with the same period a year earlier. GM’s year-to-date market share is projected to fall by 0.7 percentage points to 16.7%. Although the company remains at the top of the quarterly volume projection, the figures also show that maintaining a leading sales position does not necessarily prevent market-share pressure when competing manufacturers experience growth.

GM Sales Performance Highlights:

671,706 Q3 sales projected
Remains quarterly sales leader
Q3 volume declines 5.2%
Market share reaches 16.7%
Toyota continues closing gap

Toyota is forecast to move 642,707 units in the third quarter, a 2.2% increase over 3Q16. For 2017, it is forecast to see a 0.4 percentage point gain in market share to 15.6%. Clearly, the gap between GM and Toyota during the quarter is relatively close (a little less than 29,000 vehicles), but these numbers reveal how quickly a competitive distance can widen, especially when one manufacturer is losing volume, and the other gaining. Toyota’s projected gain is also a reminder that Asian-brand market share has been gaining, while the results for GM are a reminder of the pressure facing established automakers.

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6. Hyundai and Honda Show Strong Growth

Hyundai Motor Group is forecast to be third for quarterly sales ahead of Ford with approximately 511,421 vehicles expected in the third quarter. That would be a 6.5% year-over-year increase from the same period in 2022. Its market share is expected to grow 0.7 percentage points to 11.9% for the quarter, indicating ongoing strength across its range of vehicles. If the projection comes true, Hyundai Motor Group will maintain an ever-growing presence in the U.S. market and added to the overall progress of Asian automakers.

Hyundai and Honda Highlights:

Hyundai reaches 511,421 units
Hyundai sales rise 6.5%
Market share reaches 11.9%
Honda gains 12.2%
Asian brands expand presence

Honda is forecast to show the largest percentage gain of any of the forecasted manufacturers. Its volume in the third quarter is expected to climb 12.2% year over year to 402,580 units. Honda’s year-to-date market share is forecast to grow 0.7 of a percentage point to 9.6%. Hyundai Motor Group and Honda show how powerful the Asian automakers are becoming across the market and how the market share is spread across several manufacturers rather than being anchored by only one. Strong sales of sensibly priced, efficient vehicles are helping the Asian brands gain market share.

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7. Ford and Stellantis Experience Different Sales Trends

For Ford, third-quarter sales are expected to reach 504,172, down 7.1% from a year earlier, according to the projected industry volume and market share data. Its year-to-date market share is expected to decline 0.9 percentage points to 12.5%. Stellantis offers a different story with sales of 317,330 in the third quarter, down 1.3% from a year earlier, but its year-to-date volume is forecast to be up 2.8%. Those two firms alone add up to a decline in the share of all three Detroit auto makers and their market share from the same period last year.

Ford and Stellantis Highlights:

Ford Q3 sales reach 504,172
Ford volume declines 7.1%
Ford share falls to 12.5%
Stellantis declines 1.3%
Stellantis year-to-date sales rise

The contrasting figures show that quarterly declines do not necessarily translate into identical full-year trends. Ford’s projected market-share reduction is larger than Stellantis’ despite both companies facing challenging competitive conditions. The results also reflect how different product mixes can affect manufacturers as consumer demand moves between pickups, SUVs, passenger cars, hybrids, and other categories. Automakers therefore face increasing pressure to align their product portfolios with changing buyer preferences. A manufacturer can continue recording substantial sales while still losing market share if competing brands are growing at a faster rate.

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8. Volkswagen and Tesla Face Significant Declines

Volkswagen is projected to sell approximately 143,112 vehicles during the third quarter, representing a 9.5% decline compared with the same period last year. Its year-to-date market share is expected to decrease by 0.2 percentage points to 3.4%. Tesla faces a considerably larger projected decline, with third-quarter sales forecast at 123,880 vehicles, down 31.0% year over year. These projections add another dimension to the changing U.S. market, showing that growth is not uniform across all international manufacturers.

Volkswagen and Tesla Highlights:

Volkswagen Q3 sales decline
Market share reaches 3.4%
Tesla sales fall 31%
Tesla Q3 volume projected
Competitive pressure remains broad

Tesla’s expected loss drops its market share in 2023 (year to date) to 3.0% a drop of 0.7 percentage points. The numbers show that the ongoing shift in the U.S. market is having a different impact on every automaker so far in 2023. Asian automakers are winning share across the board, but not every non-Detroit automaker is experiencing growth so far this year. Even segments matter, and so do pricing, incentives, available models and shifting consumer demands all factors that are reflected in these forecasts but highlight the bigger picture of a changing market.

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9. SUVs and Pickups Continue Driving Sales Volume

September data by vehicle-segment indicates utility Vehicles (UVs) SUVs, crossovers and pickups remain huge drivers of demand in the U.S. market. Compact UVs are estimated at roughly 230,000 units, which accounts for 17% of September’s unit sales. And mid-size UVs are forecast at 230,000, with volume up 11.1% from the previous September. These numbers reflect the fact that consumers still want bigger, roomier vehicles at the end of the day and many prefer the UV formula.

Popular Vehicle Segment Highlights:

Compact SUVs reach 230,000
Mid-size SUVs reach 230,000
Full-size pickups reach 190,000
Subcompact SUVs grow rapidly
Compact cars gain share

Full-size pickup sales are projected at 190,000 units, up 7.3% from the previous year and representing 14.1% of September volume. Subcompact SUVs are expected to reach 128,000 units, a 33.6% increase from the previous September. Compact cars are projected at 100,000 units, up 18.7%, while mid-size cars are forecast at 65,000 units, representing an 18.8% increase. The figures show that demand is spread across both utility-focused vehicles and smaller, more efficient models. This broad distribution of demand helps explain why manufacturers with diverse lineups can compete across several segments as consumers reassess vehicle size, efficiency, practicality, and ownership costs.

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10. Changing Consumer Preferences Reshape the U.S. Auto Market

The latest Cox Automotive projections show an American vehicle market experiencing significant changes in both brand competition and product demand. Asian automakers are expected to exceed 50% market share for a second consecutive quarter, while the Detroit Three are projected to fall to just over 36%. At the same time, the overall market remains active enough for Cox Automotive to raise its full-year 2026 sales forecast to 16.1 million vehicles. The combination of these figures points to an industry where overall demand remains substantial even while the distribution of sales between manufacturers continues to change.

U.S. Auto Market Shift Highlights:

Asian brands gain market share
Detroit share reaches record low
Hybrid demand remains important
Smaller vehicles gain attention
Overall demand stays resilient

The changing balance reflects a combination of consumer preferences, vehicle availability, economic conditions, and product strategy. Compact SUVs, subcompact crossovers, passenger cars, hybrids, and pickups all continue contributing substantial sales volume, while individual automakers experience very different results. As the U.S. automotive market moves through the remainder of 2026, manufacturers will continue adjusting their product offerings and sales strategies around what buyers are choosing in showrooms. The latest forecast provides a clear snapshot of an industry where brand competition and vehicle preferences are continuing to evolve, with Asian automakers increasing their projected share while traditional Detroit manufacturers navigate a changing mix of customer demand.